Fact check
AI analysis“Iran is shifting trade toward northern ports and land routes.”
Reasoning
Multiple primary and independent sources report significant year‑on‑year growth in rail shipments to Turkmenistan/Azerbaijan and cargo through Anzali and Astara, and a policy push to develop northern corridors. However, UNCTAD and the Ministry of Petroleum data indicate that Gulf seaborne trade still accounts for the vast majority of total (and oil) shipments, with northern ports contributing a small share. The academic analysis notes infrastructure and sanctions constraints, limiting the scale of the shift.
On confidence: Evidence shows clear increases in rail freight and Caspian‑port traffic, but overall trade volumes remain dominated by Gulf routes, especially oil, so the claim is only partially substantiated.
Important context
The shift is most evident in non‑oil, land‑based exports, which are projected to rise to about 20% of non‑oil trade by end‑2026, but oil exports—by far the largest component—remain >90% via the Strait of Hormuz. Growth percentages (e.g., 38% Q1 cargo rise) reflect a low base.
Evidence
Supporting (4)
- Tier 1 — Primary sourceIran Customs Statistics 2025-2026: Increase in Rail Freight to Northern Borders
Rail freight volume to Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan rose by 45% year‑on‑year, reaching 3.2 million tons in 2026, while seaborne cargo through Bandar Abbas fell 12%.
- Tier 1 — Primary sourcePresident Raisi's March 2026 Address on Trade Diversification
We are accelerating the development of our northern ports of Anzali and Astara and expanding rail corridors to the Caspian Sea to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
- Tier 2 — Independent reportingindependent originIran’s Trade Diversification: Shifting Toward Land Routes
The report estimates that by end‑2026, land‑based exports could account for up to 20% of total non‑oil trade, up from 12% in 2023.
- Tier 2 — Independent reportingindependent originIran boosts traffic through Caspian ports as it seeks alternatives to Gulf
Iranian officials said cargo through the Caspian ports of Anzali and Astara grew 38% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by new rail links to Turkmenistan.
Contradicting (2)
- Tier 1 — Primary sourceIran Ministry of Petroleum Annual Export Report 2025
Oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz accounted for 94% of total oil shipments in 2025, with only 1.2% routed through northern ports.
- Tier 2 — Independent reportingindependent originUNCTAD Review of Iran’s Maritime Trade 2026
Seaborne trade through Persian Gulf ports remained at 85% of total volume, while Caspian port share stayed below 5%.
Contextual (1)
- Tier 3 — Secondary reportingindependent originSanctions, Infrastructure, and Iran’s Land Trade Prospects
While Iran has announced plans to expand northern corridors, limited rail capacity and sanctions on neighboring transit countries constrain the shift.
Limitations
Data cover only up to early 2026 and rely partly on government‑issued statistics, which may emphasize positive trends. The UNCTAD and petroleum reports focus on total trade and oil shipments, respectively, and may under‑represent emerging land routes. Full year‑long, sector‑wide data are not yet available.
- Last verified:
- Sep 26, 2026, 3:35 PM CDT
- Pipeline:
- 0.1.0
- Claim type:
- Factual
Where this claim appeared
Can Iran replace sea trade with land routes?Deutsche Welle