Fact check
AI analysis“There is a rising tide of forced displacement”
Reasoning
Major UN agencies (UNHCR, IDMC, IOM) report that the total number of forcibly displaced persons rose to around 115‑117 million in 2025, indicating a rise. However, independent analyses (OECD, CRS) cite a modest drop or plateau for the same period. The claim’s phrasing is qualitative, and while many authoritative bodies describe a "rising tide," the contradictory data prevent a clear verification.
On confidence: Evidence is split between primary sources reporting increases and independent reports indicating a plateau or slight decline, leading to uncertainty.
Important context
Definitions of "forced displacement" vary (refugees, asylum‑seekers, IDPs, climate‑displaced persons). The cited figures cover slightly different time frames and may use different counting methods, which explains the divergent trends reported.
Evidence
Supporting (4)
- Tier 1 — Primary sourceIDMC Annual Report 2025
Globally, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) rose to 55 million in 2025, a 5% increase over the previous year.
- Tier 1 — Primary sourceWorld Migration Report 2024
Forced displacement grew by 8% between 2022 and 2024, reaching a new high of 115 million.
- Tier 1 — Primary sourceUNHCR Global Trends Report 2025
The total number of people forcibly displaced worldwide reached 117 million at the end of 2025, an increase of 10% compared with 2024.
- Tier 3 — Secondary reportingindependent originClimate Change and Forced Displacement: A Global Review
The study finds a 12% increase in climate‑induced displacement between 2020 and 2025.
Contradicting (2)
- Tier 2 — Independent reportingindependent originOECD International Migration Outlook 2026
In 2025, the total number of forcibly displaced persons decreased to 112 million, a 2% drop from 2024—the first decline since 2015.
- Tier 2 — Independent reportingindependent originTrends in Global Forced Displacement (CRS Report)
Data from UNHCR and IOM indicate that the number of forcibly displaced persons plateaued in 2025 and fell by 1% compared with 2024.
Contextual (1)
- Tier 1 — Primary sourceUN Security Council Meeting Transcript 25 September 2026
Member states expressed concern over the 'rising tide of forced displacement' affecting multiple regions.
Limitations
The assessment relies on the excerpts provided; full reports may contain nuanced explanations. Independent sources may use alternative datasets or methodological adjustments not reflected in the primary UN figures. Consequently, the overall trend cannot be definitively confirmed or refuted with the current evidence.
- Last verified:
- Sep 26, 2026, 5:00 PM CDT
- Pipeline:
- 0.1.0
- Claim type:
- Factual
Where this claim appeared
Security Council LIVE: Rising tide of forced displacementUnited Nations