Fact check
“The near miss effect can make bettors feel they have skill after almost winning a parlay.”
Reasoning
The provided ProPublica article explains that the near miss effect is a psychological phenomenon that tricks bettors into believing they have skill when they come close to winning a parlay. The text explicitly states that bettors think they have skill after almost winning, confirming the claim.
On confidence: Two excerpts from a reputable investigative article directly describe the near miss effect causing bettors to feel skill after almost winning a parlay.
Important context
The evidence comes from a primary investigative source (ProPublica) discussing DraftKings' promotion of parlays and the psychological impact on gamblers.
Evidence
Supporting (2)
- Tier 1 — Primary sourceI Posed as a Problem Gambler. DraftKings Made Me a VIP. — ProPublica
increasing the potential payout. They’re enticing, aspirational bets. And, Grubbs was quick to remind me, they’re known by another name: a sucker’s bet. DraftKings heavily promotes parlays, offering “profit boosts” that juice their…
- Tier 1 — Primary sourceI Posed as a Problem Gambler. DraftKings Made Me a VIP. — ProPublica
you’ve got skill after almost winning. Mathematically, however, you’re actually four times more likely to get three out of four legs of a parlay, for example, than all four. Yet every time I got close, I wondered if maybe I just needed to…
Limitations
The claim is supported only by the excerpts provided; broader academic literature on the near miss effect is not cited, but the source sufficiently addresses the specific claim.
- Last verified:
- Sep 27, 2026, 4:20 AM CDT
- Pipeline:
- 2.1.0
- Claim type:
- Factual
Where this claim appeared
I Deliberately Bet Like a Problem Gambler. DraftKings Made Me a VIP.ProPublica · Jake Pearson